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Market Analysis Week of June 29, 2015

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Date: June 29th, 2015

Technical Analysis

Pair: EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280, 1.1320
Support: 1.1380, 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.0950
Bias: Neutral. The negotiations between Greece and EU fell apart again over the weekend and no deal was reached between the parties. As a result Greece has had to impose capital controls in the country leaving the banks closed for the week. This situation has wreaked havoc in the markets. We say EUR drop 200 pips over the weekend before it recovered. The IMF repayment is due tomorrow so Greece needs to reach a deal with EU in order to access funds to be able to make the payment and avoid a debt default. The situation has now turned critical so we expect a lot of volatility in the markets. There may also be a liquidity issues as market players are getting worried and may be sitting at the sidelines waiting for the situation to unfold. This could cause deeper moves than expected in the market. I recommend caution when trading this week. It is also the end of June so expect some position readjustments and month end flows, adding to the volatility, not to mention the holiday in the US.

Pair: GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.5770, 1.5800, 1.5850, 1.5920
Support: 1.5700, 1.5650, 1.5620, 1.5550
Bias: Neutral. As with all the other markets, GBPUSD is waiting on the Greece situation. We’ve seen GBP consolidate over last few days. It gapped down with EUR with the news that there was no deal reached over the weekend between Greece and EU. It has since come back and filled the gap. However, GBP still sits in the consolidation range. We remain neutral on the pair till further developments in the Eurozone. As mentioned earlier, we expect a lot of volatility in the markets this week due to the Greece situation, month end flows as well as it being a shorter trading week in the US.

Fundamentals

As mentioned above, this week could be volatile.

Below is High Impact News scheduled for this week:
Tuesday

  1. GBP Current Account – 4:30am EST
  2.  GBP Final GDP q/q – 4:30am EST
  3. AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks – 4:40am EST
  4. EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 5:00am EST
  5.  EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 5:00am EST
  6. EUR Unemployment Rate – 5:00am EST
  7. Eurogroup Meetings –All Day
  8. CAD GDP m/m – – 8:30am EST
  9. German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 5:00am EST
  10. USD Chicago PMI– 8:30am EST
  11. USD CB Consumer Confidence – 10:00am EST
  12. AUD Building Approvals m/m -9:30pm EST

Wednesday

  1. GBP Manufacturing PMI – 4:30am EST
  2. GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks – 5:30am EST
  3. USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:15am EST
  4. USD ISM Manufacturing PMI – 10:00am EST
  5. NZD GDT Price Index – Tentative

Thursday

  1. GBP Construction PMI – 4:30am EST
  2. EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 7:30am EST
  3. USD Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:30am EST
  4. USD Unemployment Rate – 8:30am EST
  5. ECB President Draghi Speaks – 11:10am EST
  6. AUD Retail Sales m/m –9:30pm EST

Friday

  1. GBP Services PMI – 4:30am EST
  2. USD Bank Holiday
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