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Market Analysis Week of June 15, 2015

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Date: June 15th, 2015

Technical Analysis

Pair: EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1280, 1.1325, 1.1380, 1.1450
Support:  1.1135, 1.11, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0950
Bias: Neutral to short. The negotiations between Greece and EU fell apart over the weekend. Greece needs the funds from EU in order to pay the IMF loan, the payment on which has been deferred to later this month. The equity markets have moved down in light of this. We may see a lot of volatility in the Forex markets as we draw closer to the end of the month. We also have a high number of High Impact news coming out this week which will add to this volatility.  We will remain open on the market direction and suggest caution when trading EUR.

Pair: GBPUSD

Resistance:  1.5580, 1.5600, 1.5700, 1.5820
Support:  1.5450, 1.5320, 1.5300, 1.5235
Bias: Long. GBP has been very strong lately. GBP has rejected support levels and continues to move higher as more money moves into this market. The added uncertainty in other dollar crosses makes this a stronger pair to trade right now. We can expect interesting moves in this pair as well with the various high impact news scheduled for this week.

Fundamentals

This week is packed with High Impact news. We expect a lot of volatility this week due to Greece negotiations falling apart over the weekend, Draghi’s speech, FOMC in the middle of the week and Eurogroup meetings.

Below is High Impact News scheduled for this week:

Monday

  1. CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  2. ECB President Draghi Speaks – 9:00am EST
  3. AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minute – 9:00pm EST

Tuesday

  1. GBP CPI y/y – 4:30am EST
  2. European Court of Justice Ruling – Tentative
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 5:00am EST
  4. USD Building Permits– 8:30am EST
  5. NZD GDT Price Index- Tentative

Wednesday

  1. GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y – 4:30am EST
  2. Claimant Count Change – 4:30am EST
  3. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes – 4:30am EST
  4. CAD Wholesale Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  5. USD FOMC Economic Projections – 2:00pm EST
  6. USD FOMC Statement – 2:00pm EST
  7. USD Federal Funds Rate – 2:00pm EST
  8. USD FOMC Press Conference – 2:30pm EST
  9. NZD GDP q/q- 6:45pm EST

Thursday

  1. CHF Libor Rate – 3:30am EST
  2. CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – 3:30am EST
  3. CHF SNB Press Conference – 3:30am EST
  4. GBP Retail Sales m/m – 4:30am EST
  5. EUR Targeted LTRO – 5:15am EST
  6. EUR Eurogroup Meetings – All Day
  7. USD CPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  8. USD Core CPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  9. USD Unemployment Claims – 8:30am EST
  10. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 10am EST

Friday

  1. CAD Core CPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  2. CAD Core Retail Sales m/m – 8:30am EST

Indices and Commodities

DOW – down – 17,889.84
S&P500 – down – 2,094.11
Nasdaq – down – 5,051.10
Nekei – down – 20,387.79
FTSE100 – down – 6,722.69
DAX – down – 10,993.06

Gold – up – $1,179.20
Oil – down – $59.19

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