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Market Analysis

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Date: May 25th, 9:30am EST

Technical Analysis

Pair: EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.1070, 1.1100, 1.1200
Support:  1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0800
Bias: Short. On Friday, we saw the EUR moved lower amid strong inflation data out of the US and supported by Yellen’s comments around potential rate hike in 2015. The Greece situation has also been weighing on the EUR. Greece negotiations are still and no closer to reaching an agreement. This could become a bigger issue as the next IMF loan repayment comes up in June. Thin liquidity conditions in the market due to Monday bank holiday also contributed to the strong move down in EUR. For this week, I’m biased to the short side on EUR and will look to sell EUR rallies.

Pair: GBPUSD

Resistance:  1.5120, 1.5150, 1.5200
Support:  1.54500, 1.5400, 1.5350, 1.5300, 1.5260
Bias: Short. We saw a similar move lower in GBP, again based on strong inflation data out of the US and supported by Yellen’s comments around potential rate hike in 2015. Thin liquidity conditions in the market also contributed to the strong move down in GBP. For this week, I’m biased to the short side on GBP as well and will look to rallies. However, we may see a pull-back wiping out some of that in-efficient move down so watch out for that.

Fundamentals

We are thin on High Impact news this week. Below is High Impact News scheduled for this week:

Tuesday

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (US) – 8:30am EST
CB Consumer Confidence (US)  – 10:00am EST
Wednesday
GfK German Consumer Climate (EUR) – 2:00 EST

Thursday

Second Estimate GDP q/q (GBP) – 4:30am EST
Unemployment Claims (US) -8:30am
Pending Home Sales m/m (US) – 10:am EST
Crude Oil Inventories (US) – 11:am EST

Friday

German Retail Sales m/m (EUR) – 2:00am EST
M3 Money Supply y/y (EUR) – 4:00am EST
Prelim GDP q/q (US) – 8:30am EST

Indices and Commodities

DOW – down – 18,232.02
S&P500 – down – 2,126.06
Nasdaq – down – 5,089.36
Nekei – up – 20,413.77
FTSE100 – up – 7031.72
DAX – down – 11,815.01

Gold – up – $1,206.90
Oil – down – $59.46

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