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Market Analysis – week of July 13th, 2015

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Pair: EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1120, 1.1200, 1.1230, 1.1280
Support:  1.1000, 1.980, 1.950, 1.0920
Bias: Neutral. Greece continues to overshadow the FX markets. Last week market was buoyed by the announcement that Greece was willing to take the deal. We saw a big bullish move in both the Euro and the Pound as a result of this. Market participants expected a firm deal coming out of the talks last Sunday. European authorities announced that they have agreed to a third bailout. However, the deal still needs to be passed by Greece, Germany and other European parliaments. The deal imposes strict austerity measures and reforms on Greece which may be difficult for them to live with. However, Greece is in a tough spot with the banks closed for 2 weeks and needs the funds. Now we need to wait and see if the deal passes the parliaments before it gets finalized. As a result of this, we may see another volatile week in EURUSD. We’ll be open to moves to both bearish and bullish moves and watch price action at key support levels for entries.

Pair: GBPUSD

Resistance:  1.5580, 1.5620, 1.5670, 1.5800
Support:  1.5467, 1.5400, 1.5350
Bias: Neutral. GBP has been a beneficiary of the Greece deal more than the Euro. We may see both pairs pull away from the highs. However, GBP stays strong and we may see more moves to the upside after the pullbacks. A positive print for CPI data due tomorrow may push the pair up. However, we’ll remain open to both bearish and bullish moves and watch price action at key support levels for entries. We also have multiple data releases out of the US and Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony this Wednesday. Therefore, we may see USD driven moves that’ll impact this pair.

Fundamentals

As mentioned above, this week could be volatile. Below is High Impact News scheduled for this week:

Monday

  1. Eurogroup Meetings –All Day
  2. NAB Business Confidence – 9:30pm EST

Tuesday

  1. GBP CPI y/y – 4:30am EST
  2. EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 5:00am EST
  3. USD Core Retail Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  4. USD Retail Sales m/m – 8:30am EST

Wednesday

  1. GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y – 4:30am EST
  2. GBP Claimant Count Change – 4:30am EST
  3. CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  4. USD PPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  5. CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report – 10:00am EST
  6. CAD BOC Rate Statement – 10:00am EST
  7. CAD Overnight Rate – 10:00am EST
  8. USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies – 10:00am EST
  9. NZD GDT Price Index – Tentative
  10. CAD BOC Press Conference – 11:15am EST
  11. NZD CPI q/q – 6:45pm

Thursday

  1. EUR Minimum Bid Rate -7:45am EST
  2. EUR ECB Press Conference – 8:30am EST
  3. USD Unemployment Claims- 8:30am EST
  4. USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies – 10:00am EST
  5. USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00am EST

Friday

  1. CAD Core CPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  2. USD Building Permits – 8:30am EST
  3. USD CPI m/m – – 8:30am EST
  4. USD Core CPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  5. USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 10:00am EST
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