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Market Analysis for week of August 10th, 2015

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Pair: EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1050, 1.1120, 1.1200
Support:  1.920, 1.0870, 1.0800
Bias: Short. EURSUD went up to test above the 1.1100 level on Friday but failed to hold above. This week we may see more downward pressure on the EUR and I’ll be looking for a further move to the downside.

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Pair: GBPUSD

Resistance:  1.5580, 1.5680, 1.5800
Support: 1.5425, 1.5335, 1.5200
Bias: Short. Ever since the BOE Governor Carney talked about a potential interest rate hike for the GBP in early 2016, the market has had positive sentiment towards GBPUSD. Last week, the market expectation was to see more votes in the favor of this interest rate hike. However, the MPC members voted 8:1 against increasing interest rates when market expected a 7:2 vote. This caused the GBP to take a hit. We also saw positive data out of the US. With the Fed not wavering from a potential interest rate hike in September, more eyes will be on the economic data that comes out for the USD. The markets will be driven by the USD sentiment this week.

GBP has been trading in the range 1.5468 – 1.5680 for over a week now. Last Thursday, we saw a big push down on the disappointing MPC votes and then further based on the NFP Non-farm payroll data. The price went and tested the bottom at 1.5420 but was not able to hold below the range. We’ll look for the price to break and hold above or below the range to get a clear read on the direction for this pair. For now, we’ll look to short 1.5680 and go long at 1.5330 levels.

Fundamentals

Below is High Impact News scheduled for this week:

Monday

  1. FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks – 12:25pm EST
  2. AUD NAB Business Confidence – 9:30pm EST

Tuesday

  1. EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 5:00am EST

Wednesday

  1. GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y – 4:30am EST
  2. GBP Claimant Count Change – 4:30am EST

Thursday

  1. USD Core Retail Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  2. USD Retail Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  3. USD Unemployment Claims – 8:30am EST
  4. NZD Retail Sales q/q – 6:45pm

Friday

  1. German Prelim GDP q/q – 2:00am EST
  2. CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m – 8:30am EST
  3. USD PPI m/m – 8:30am EST
  4. USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 10:00am EST
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